Roy L.Nersesian challenges traditional forecasting methods that rely strictly on econometric models, arguing that they ignore a fundamental aspect of the business cycle - human emotional responses to economic stimuli. Nersesian advocates instead the development of forecasting models that incorporate human behaviour into the process, and he provides a tool - computer simulation - which can be used for this purpose. As Nersesian demonstrates, such consumer attitudes as confidence in the future, fear of depression, even passing fads can have a profound effect on business activity and are often far more predictive of the future than are the thousands of mathematical equations used to develop a forecast built upon econometrics. By using simulation to factor potential consumer responses into the forecasting process, Nersesian is able to tie forecasting to the consequences of human behaviour and thereby determine the way in which attitudes play a role in affecting the future course of business.