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Cognitive Bias in Intelligence Analysis by Martha Whitesmith
Cognitive Bias in Intelligence Analysis by Martha Whitesmith
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Cognitive Bias in Intelligence Analysis

Testing the Analysis of Competing Hypotheses Method
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Description

Recent high-profile intelligence failures from 9/11 to the 2003 Iraq war prove that cognitive bias in intelligence analysis can have catastrophic consequences. This book critiques the reliance of Western intelligence agencies on the use of a method for intelligence analysis developed by the CIA in the 1990s, the Analysis of Competing Hypotheses (ACH). The author puts ACH to the test in an experimental setting against two key cognitive biases with unique empirical research facilitated by UK's Professional Heads of Intelligence Analysis unit at the Cabinet Office, and finds that the theoretical basis of the ACH method is significantly flawed. Combining the insight of a practitioner with over 11 years of experience in intelligence with both philosophical theory and experimental research, the author proposes an alternative approach to mitigating cognitive bias that focuses on creating the optimum environment for analysis, challenging current leading theories.

Author Biography:

Martha Whitesmith, Senior Intelligence Analyst, Ministry of Defence.
Release date Australia
May 31st, 2022
Audience
  • General (US: Trade)
Pages
304
ISBN-13
9781474466356
Product ID
32939160

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