Forecasting International Migration in Europe: A Bayesian View

By:

Jakub Bijak

Format:

Paperback / softback

Series:

The Springer Series on Demographic Methods and Population Analysis

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Description

International migration is becoming an increasingly important element of contemporary demographic dynamics and yet, due to its high volatility, it remains the most unpredictable element of population change. In Europe, population forecasting is especially difficult because good-quality data on migration are lacking. There is a clear need for reliable methods of predicting migration since population forecasts are indispensable for rational decision making in many areas, including labour markets, social security or spatial planning and organisation. In addressing these issues, this book adopts a Bayesian statistical perspective, which allows for a formal incorporation of expert judgement, while describing uncertainty in a coherent and explicit manner. No prior knowledge of Bayesian statistics is assumed. The outcomes are discussed from the point of view of forecast users (decision makers), with the aim to show the relevance and usefulness of the presented methods in practical applications.

Release date Australia

December 1st, 2012

Author

Jakub Bijak

Audience

Professional & Vocational

Contributor

Contributions by Arkadiusz Wisniowski

Illustrations

XXIV, 316 p.

Pages

316

Series

The Springer Series on Demographic Methods and Population Analysis

Dimensions

155x235x18

ISBN-13

9789400733954

Product ID

21169738

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