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Estimative Intelligence in European Foreign Policymaking

Learning Lessons from an Era of Surprise
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Description

This book develops a new framework for conducting postmortems guided by a normative model of anticipatory foreign policy. It is the first assessment of the performance of three leading European polities in providing estimative intelligence during an era of surprise. The comparative analysis focuses on how the UK, the EU and Germany handled three cases of major surprises: the Arab uprisings, the rise to power of the Islamic State (ISIS), and the Russian annexation of Crimea. It considers government intelligence assessments, diplomatic reporting and expert open sources, and how organisational leaders received these assessments. The book tests and develops new theories about the causes of strategic surprises, going beyond a common focus on intelligence versus policy failures to identify challenges and factors that cut across analyst and decision-maker communities. Drawing on insights and chapters provided by former senior officials, the book identifies lessons to learn from European polities to better anticipate and prepare for future surprises.

Author Biography:

Christoph Meyer, Professor of European and International Politics, King's College London. Eva Michaels, Beatriu de Pinos Fellow. Aviva Guttman, Lecturer in Strategy and Intelligence, Aberystwyth University. Michael S. Goodman, Reader in Intelligence and International Affairs, King's College London.
Release date Australia
October 31st, 2022
Audience
  • Postgraduate, Research & Scholarly
Contributors
  • Edited by Aviva Guttman
  • Edited by Christoph Meyer
  • Edited by Eva Michaels
  • Edited by Michael S. Goodman
  • Edited by Nikki Ikani
Pages
256
ISBN-13
9781399505512
Product ID
36009912

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